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Международная макроэкономика и международные финансы – это две смежные дисциплины, изучающие экономические законы перемещения капитала между странами, а также связанные с ними макроэкономические процессы. К настоящему моменту обе дисциплины практически слились в единый фрагмент, объединенный макроэкономической методологией и ключевым политическим вопросом: какой курс иностранной валюты необходим стране в определенной ситуации. (подробнее...)
Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 243

Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004
Sebastian Edwards NBER Working Paper Series. 1998.  w6800.
This paper deals with some of the most important aspects of Latin America's experience with capital flows during the last twenty-five years. The paper begins with a historical analysis. I then deal with the sequencing of reform and discuss issues related to the relationship between capital flows, real exchange rates, and international competitiveness. I next concentrate on the role of capital controls as a device for isolating emerging economies from the volatility of international capital markets. I begin by reviewing the policy issues and the current debate on the subject. I then present an empirical analysis of Chile's recent experiences with capital controls and make some comparisons to the recent experiences of Columbia. The analysis of the Chilean experience is particularly important since its practice of imposing reserves requirements on capital inflows has been praised by a number of analysts, including senior staff of the multilateral institutions, as an effective and efficient way of reducing the vulnerability associated with capital flows volatility. The results obtained suggest that capital controls in Chile have had mixed results: while they have allowed the Central Bank to have a greater degree of control over short term interest rates, they have failed in avoiding real exchange rate appreciation. The paper ends with some reflections, based on recent Latin American historical episodes, on the role of banks in intermediating capital inflows and on financial crises.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004
Sebastian Edwards NBER Working Paper Series. 2002.  w8939.
In this paper I analyze the relationship between fiscal policy, aggregate public sector debt sustainability, and debt relief. I develop a methodology to compute the fiscal policy path that is compatible with aggregate debt sustainability in the post-HIPC era. The model explicitly considers the role of domestic debt, and quantifies the extent to which future debt sustainability depends on the availability of concessional loans at subsidized interest rates. The working of the model is illustrated for the case of Nicaragua, a country that in 2002 had one of the highest net present value of public external debt to GDP ratios.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004
Jon Faust, John H. Rogers International Finance Discussion Papers. 1999.  No. 652.
While much empirical work has addressed the role of monetary policy shocks in exchange rate behavior, conclusions have been clouded by the lack of plausible identifying assumptions. We apply a recently developed inference procedure allowing us to relax dubious identifying assumptions. This work overturns some earlier results and strengthens others: Contrary to earlier findings of "delayed overshooting," the peak exchange rate effect of policy shocks may come nearly immediately after the shock; In every otherwise reasonable identification, monetary policy shocks lead to large uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) deviations; Monetary policy shocks may account for a smaller portion of the variance of exchange rates than found in earlier estimates. While is consistent with overshooting, implies that the overshooting cannot be driven by Dornbusch's mechanism, and gives reason to doubt whether monetary policy shocks are the main source of exchange rate volatility.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Debt Restructuring [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004
Benjamin M. Friedman NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  w7722.
What difference does it make, and for whom, whether the nonperforming debts of emerging market borrowers are restructured? This paper begins by positing a set of counterfactual conditions under which restructuring would not matter, and then shows how several ways in which the actual world of international lending departs from these conditions give both lenders and borrowers ample reason to care whether nonperforming debts are restructured. One implication of the way in which debt restructuring matters is that restructuring should not be too' easy. Further, with a greater frequency of defaults, some credit flows to emerging market countries would not be extended in the first place. An important element driving this line of argument is moral hazard, but (unlike in much of the recent literature of emerging market debt problems) what is central here is not the availability of credit from the IMF or other official lenders but the more fundamental moral hazard inherent in all uncollateralized borrower-lender relationships.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004
Frederic S. Mishkin, Miguel A. Savastano NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  w7617.
The paper examines possible monetary policy strategies for Latin America that may help lock-in the gains in the fight against inflation attained by the region during the 1990s. We start by calling for a refocus of the debate about the conduct of monetary policy away from thinking that it is about whether the nominal exchange rate should be fixed or flexible. Instead we argue that the focus should be on whether the monetary policy regime appropriately constrains discretion in monetary policymaking. This focus suggest that there are three basic frameworks that deserve serious discussion as possible, long-run strategies for monetary policy in Latin America: a hard exchange-rate peg, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting. We look at the advantages and disadvantages of each of these strategies and then examine the recent track record of monetary policy in some Latin American countries for clues as to which of the three strategies might be best suited to economies in the region.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004
Maurice Obstfeld NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8369.
This paper presents a broad overview of postwar analytical thinking on international macroeconomics, culminating in a more detailed discussion of very recent progress. Along the way, it reviews important empirical evidence that has inspired alternative modeling approaches, as well as theoretical and policy considerations behind developments in the field. The most recent advances in model building center on the 'new open economy macroeconomics,' which synthesizes Keynesian nominal rigidities, intertemporal approaches to open economy dynamics, and the effects of market structure on international trade.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004
Nouriel Roubini, Jeffrey A. Frankel NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8634.
This paper considers policies of the industrialized countries, as they pertain to crises in emerging markets. These fall into three areas: (1) their own macroeconomic policies, which determine the global financial environment; (2) their role in responding to crises when they occur, particularly through rescue packages, which have three components -- reforms in debtor countries, public funds from creditor countries, and private sector involvement; and (3) efforts to reform the international financial architecture, with the aim of lessening the frequency and severity of future crises. A recurrent theme is the tension between mitigating crises that occur, and the moral hazard that such efforts create in the longer term. In addition to reviewing these three areas of policy, we consider the institutions through which the more powerful countries exercise their influence. We conclude with a discussion of the debate over the sins of the International Monetary Fund, and proposals for reform.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004
Maurice Obstfeld, Kenneth S. Rogoff Journal of International Economics. 2000.  Vol. 50. P. 117-153. 
The paper develops a simple stochastic new open economy macroeconomic model based on sticky nominal wages. Explicit solution of the wage-setting problem under uncertainty allows one to analyze the effects of the monetary regime on welfare, expected output, and the expected terms of trade. Despite the potential interplay between imperfections due to sticky wages and monopoly, the optimal monetary policy rule has a closed-form solution. To motivate our model, we show that observed correlations between terms of trade and exchange rates are more consistent with our traditional assumptions about nominal rigidities than with a popular alternative based on local-currency pricing.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 09-11-2004
Paul R. Krugman
Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1995, 219 с.
Currencies and Crises brings together Paul Krugman's work on international monetary economics from the late 1970s to the present, in an effort to make sense of a turbulent period that, in Krugman's words, "involved one surprise after another, most of them unpleasant." The eleven essays cover such key areas as the role of exchange rates in balance-of-payments adjustment policy, the role of speculation in the functioning of exchange-rate regimes, third world debt, and the construction of an international monetary system.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит графическое изображение (иллюстрацию)

Опубликовано на портале: 05-11-2004
Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld
Boston: Addison Wesley Higher Education, 2003
International Economics: Theory and Policy is the best-selling textbook in the field written by two of the world's leading economists, Paul R. Krugman of Princeton University and Maurice Obstfeld of the University of California, Berkeley. The Sixth Edition provides an up-to-date and understandable analytical framework for illuminating current events and new research findings in the dynamic field of international economics. This new edition has been thoroughly revised to reflect the changes of today's global economic landscape, including the unprecedented expansion of globalization, the increasingly crucial nature of international economic relations, the gains from trade, and recent anti-globalization controversies such as the continuing debate over the optimal level of trade. Consistent with previous editions, the authors also present an integrated treatment of the Ricardian model, specific factors, factor endowments, and imperfect competition models of trade, along with in-depth analysis of empirical evidence. They cover the effects and causes of trade policy and the income-distribution effects of trade, and also provide a unified model of open-economy macroeconomics, based on an asset-market approach to exchange rate determination with a central role for expectations.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит графическое изображение (иллюстрацию)

Опубликовано на портале: 26-10-2004
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. 
We develop a novel system of re-classifying historical exchange rate regimes. One difference between our study and previous classification efforts is that we employ an extensive data base on market-determined parallel exchange rates. Our 'natural' classification algorithm leads to a stark reassessment of the post-war history of exchange rate arrangements. When the official categorization is a form of peg, roughly half the time our classification reveals the true underlying monetary regime to be something radically different, often a variant of a float. Conversely, when official classification is floating, our scheme routinely suggests that the reality was a form of de facto peg. Our new classification scheme points to a complete rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes. Indeed, the breakup of Bretton Woods had a far less dramatic impact on most exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed. Also, contrary to an influential empirical literature, our evidence suggests that exchange rate arraignments may be quite important for growth, trade and inflation. Our newly compiled monthly data set on market-determined exchange rates goes back to 1946 for 153 countries.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2004
Lutz Kilian, Mark Peter Taylor Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers. 2001.  P. TI 2001-031/4. 
We propose a stylized exchange rate model based on diversity and weight of opinion. Our model departs from standard assumptions in that we allow for heterogeneous agents. We show that such a model can explain both the observed volatility and the persistence of real and nominal exchange rate movements and thus in some measure resolves Rogoffs (1996) purchasing power parity puzzle. Our empirical analysis reconciles the well-known difficulties in beating the random walk forecast model with the statistical evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in deviations from fundamentals.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Обновлено: 12-04-2011

Cайт швейцарского Агентства информации и сотрудничества в области международной торговли (Agency for International Trade Information and Cooperation) содержит информацию о деятельности организации, ее структуре.

Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004
Charles M. Engel NBER Working Paper Series. 1999.  No. 7067.
This paper investigates the behavior of the foreign exchange risk premium in two recent two-country intertemporal-optimizing general equilibrium models with sticky nominal prices: Obstfeld-Rogoff (1998) and Devereux-Engel (1998). The foreign exchange risk premium in any general equilibrium model arises from the correlation of the exchange rate with consumption. In flexible price models, that requires correlation of monetary and output supply shocks. In sticky-price models, the correlation arises endogenously because monetary shocks cause output and consumption to change. The size of the risk premium depends on how prices are set (in producers' currencies versus consumers' currencies), and on the form of the money demand function. In some cases, the risk premium generated by the model is quite large.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004
Charles M. Engel NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  No. 7889.
This paper examines optimal exchange-rate policy in two-country sticky-price general equilibrium models in which households and firms optimize over an infinite horizon in an environment of uncertainty. The models are in the vein of the new open-economy macroeconomics' as exemplified by Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995, 1998, 2000). The conditions under which fixed or floating exchange rates yield higher welfare depend on the exact nature of price stickiness and on the degree of risk-sharing opportunities. This paper presents some preliminary empirical evidence on the behavior of consumer prices in Mexico that suggests failures of the law of one price are important. The evidence on price setting and risk-sharing opportunities is not refined enough to make definitive conclusions about the optimal exchange-rate regime for that country.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 04-10-2004
Светлана Владимировна Шмыкова – закон, согласно которому в разных странах цены одинаковых (одни и те же) товаров должны быть равны, если их выразить в одной валюте. При этом полагается, что рынки являются конкурентными, а торговые барьеры транспортные и трансакционные издержки отсутствуют.

Международные финансы [учебная программа]
Опубликовано на портале: 13-09-2004
Сергей Владимирович Котелкин
4 курс
Цель курса «Международные финансы»:
улучшить понимание студентами международной валютно-финансовой системы;
рассмотреть международную валютно-финансовую и кредитную деятельность финансовых институтов.
В результате изучения курса, у студентов формируются знания о международной финансовой среде, в которой функционируют основные экономические субъекты, а также о международных финансовых, расчетных, инвестиционных операциях коммерческих банков, органов власти, индивидуумов.
Объем курса: 32 часа лекций.

К содержанию курса прилагается список рекомендованной литературы.

ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
Katarina Juselius, Ronald MacDonald Working papers of Copenhagen University. 2000.  No. 0010.
This paper examines the interrelations between the purchasing power parity, uncovered interest parity, the term structure of interest rates and the Fisher real interest rate parity using cointegration analysis. Dynamic adjustment and feed-back effects are estimated jointly in a full system of equations. An important finding is that the very slow, though significant, price adjustment towards sustainable levels of real exchange rates, has been compensated by corresponding changes in the spread of the long-term bond rates. Related to this is the strong empirical support for the weak exogeneity of the long-term bond rates, signifying the importance of the large US trade deficits (i.e. the low levels of US savings) and, hence, their linkage to international finance. Altogether, the results suggest that the transmission mechanisms over the post Bretton Woods period have been significantly different from standard theoretical assumptions.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
Maurice Obstfeld, Kenneth S. Rogoff NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  No. 7777.
The central claim in this paper is that by explicitly introducing costs of international trade (narrowly, transport costs but more broadly, tariffs, nontariff barriers and other trade costs), one can go far toward explaining a great number of the main empirical puzzles that international macroeconomists have struggled with over twenty-five years. Our approach elucidates J. McCallum's home bias in trade puzzle, the Feldstein-Horioka saving-investment puzzle, the French-Poterba equity home bias puzzle, and the Backus-Kehoe- Kydland consumption correlations puzzle. That one simple alteration to an otherwise canonical international macroeconomic model can help substantially to explain such a broad arrange of empirical puzzles, including some that previously seemed intractable, suggests a rich area for future research. We also address a variety of international pricing puzzles, including the purchasing power parity puzzle emphasized by Rogoff, and what we term the exchange-rate disconnect puzzle.' The latter category of riddles includes both the Meese-Rogoff exchange rate forecasting puzzle and the Baxter-Stockman neutrality of exchange rate regime puzzle. Here although many elements need to be added to our extremely simple model, we can still show that trade costs play an essential role.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
Patrick K. Asea, Stephen J. Turnovsky Journal of Public Economics. 1998.  Vol. 68. No. 1. P. 55-90. 
How do capital income taxes affect household portfolio choice and growth? We approach this question within the context of a stochastic model of a small open economy in" which taxes on income from domestic capital (equity) and foreign bonds affect household" portfolio choice, welfare and the growth rate of the economy. The theoretical and numerical" analysis demonstrates the important role that risk plays in determining the mean and variability" of growth as well as the conditions under which a higher tax rate can be welfare improving. To" shed more light on the complex theoretical interaction between taxes and risk-taking we estimate" a reduced-form multinomial probit model of household portfolio choice using the method of" simulated moments. The empirical evidence is in stark contrast to the conventional wisdom " we find that higher taxes make it less likely that the household will hold risky assets."
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию