In this paper we seek to characterize the robustness of the ENSO/soybean price relationship
and to determine whether it has practical economic content. If such a meaningful
relationship exists, the implications could be profound for commodity traders and
for public sector investments in climate forecasting capabilities. Also, the validity
of economic evaluations of climate impacts and climate forecasts based on ENSO-price
independence would come into question. Our findings suggest a relationship between
interannual climate and soybean prices, although we are not able to attribute the
relationship to ENSO or to say that ENSO is economically important.