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Empirical Exchange Rate Models Of The Seventies. Do They Fit out of Sample?

Опубликовано на портале: 22-10-2007
Journal of International Economics. 1983.  Vol. 14. P. 3-24. 
This study compares the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of various structural and time series exchange rate models. We find that a random walk model performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons for the dollar/pound, dollar/mark, dollar/yen and trade-weighted dollar exchange rates. The candidate structural models include the flexible-price (Frenkel-Bilson) and sticky-price (Dornbusch-Frankel) monetary models, and a sticky-price model which incorporates the current account (Hooper-Morton). The structural models perform poorly despite the fact that we base their forecasts on actual realized values of future explanatory variables

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См. также:
Patrick L. Bajari, Charles Lanier Benkard, Jonathan David Levin
Econometrica. 2007.  Vol. 75. No. 5. P. 1331 - 1370.