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1933 and 1977 - Some Expansion Policy Problems in Cases of Unbalanced Domestic and International Economic Relations / Nobel Lectures, Economics 1969-1980, World Scientific Publishing Co., Singapore

Опубликовано на портале: 05-12-2003
Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Company, 1992, cерия "Nobel Lectures", 456 с.
В 1977 году шведский экономист Бертиль Олин получил премию памяти Альфреда Нобеля по экономике за первопроходческий вклад в теорию международной торговли и международного движения капитала. Данная публикация представляет собой его нобелевскую лекцию; в ней автор описывает базовые понятия теории мировой экономики и международной торговли и проводит сравнения ситуаций в мировой экономике на базе исторических данных об её функционировании в 1933 и 1977 годах. Лекция написана простым английским языком. Она находится в открытом доступе на официальном сайте.

"The economic history of the last half century offers two cases of serious international depressions in countries with an essential orientation towards a market economy: In the first half of the 1930ies and in the middle of the 1970ies. With some simplification one can say that in the former case recovery started after a few years without the aid of much conscious expansionist policy. An adaptation of the external values of the currencies took place in Northern Europe and in some British Dominions in 1931. It came almost two years later in the United States and in 1936 in Southern Europe. In the 1970ies, on the other hand, internal policy measures for expansion1 have been numerous and far-reaching in almost all industrial nations except some with weak balances of payments. They have been accompanied by numerous adaptations of foreign exchange rates to relative cost levels. Yet the recovery which started in 1975 and 1976 has not been more forceful – perhaps instead somewhat slower and more hesitant than in the earlier case - in spite of the more serious breakdown of large parts of the banking system in the 1930ies. The immediate impression of these facts is hardly favourable to a policy of expansion built on the macro-economic theory developed in the thirties chiefly at Cambridge and in Stockholm. But closer investigation and comparison is necessary..."
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