Projecting World Food Demand - a Comparison of Alternative Demand Systems /доклад на 10 конгрессе ЕААЕ, Exploring Diversity in the European Agri-Food System, Zaragoza, Spain, 28-31 August 2002
Опубликовано на портале: 29-11-2003
Projections of world food demands hinge critically on the underlying functional form used to predict future demands. Simple functional forms can lead to unrealistic projections by failing to capture changes in income elasticities of demand as consumer becomes wealthier. This paper compares several demand systems in the projection of disaggregated food demand across a wide range of countries with different income levels using a global general equilibrium model. We find that the recently introduced AIDADS system represents a substantial improvement over existing demand systems currently in use in CGE modeling. In particular, our projection results show that for relatively poor regions experiencing rapid income growth, the widely used LES and CDE demand systems tend to over-predict growth in consumer demand, and hence import and output requirements for food products and under-predict that for non-food products, compared to the AIDADS system. On the other hand, for high-income regions with modest income growth, the choice of functional form is less critical.
Russia’s Agro-food Trade and Trade Agreements / Russia’s Agro-Food Sector: Towards Truly Functioning Markets. Edited by P. Wehrheim, K. Frohberg, E. Serova, J. von Braun.
Evaluating EU Agricultural Policy Reform Using the EU WTO Model /доклад на 10 конгрессе ЕААЕ, Exploring Diversity in the European Agri-Food System, Zaragoza, Spain, 28-31 August 2002
Agricultural Trade Barriers, Trade Negotiations, and the Interests of Developing Countries / доклад на 24 конференции IAAE, Tomorrow’s Agriculture: Incentives, Institutions, Infrastructure and Innovations, Berlin, Germany, 13-18 August 2000
Food Safety Information and Food Demand – Effects of Temporary and Permanent News /доклад на 10 конгрессе ЕААЕ, Exploring Diversity in the European Agri-Food System, Zaragoza, Spain, 28-31 August 2002
Nutrient effects on consumer demand: a panel data approach / доклад на 25 конференции IAAE, Reshaping Agriculture’s Contribution to Society, International Convention Centre, Durban, South Africa, 16-23 August 2003
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 2001. Vol. 33. No. 1.