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Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future

Опубликовано на портале: 23-04-2007
Chichester, England: Wiley, 2006, 478 с.
Тематический раздел:
Scenario planning has received much top-level interest in the corporate sector as a way of realistically assessing the long-term future. Yet seldom are line managers included in initiatives, even though their exposure to customers and competitors means they often pick up subtle signals that are the first alert of changes to the operating environment. By exposing line managers to alternative scenarios, organizations can reduce the risk of ignoring the small environmental changes that are the advance warning for major discontinuities. Now completely updated in a new edition, the message of this practical, hands-on guide is that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but powerful weapons in managing the uncertainties of the future. Taking a conceptual rather than mathematical approach, it includes a wealth of case studies, checklists, early indicators and examples

List of Contributors

Foreword

PART I: INTRODUCTION

  • Chapter 1: Development of Scenario Planning
  • Chapter 2: Where Are We Now?
  • Chapter 3: ICL's Experience of Building Scenarios
  • Chapter 4: Linking Scenarios to Strategic Planning
  • Chapter 5: Scenarios to Influence Public Attitudes
  • Chapter 6: Scenarios for Learning
  • Chapter 7: Summary and Conclusions

    PART II: METHODS AND EXAMPLES

  • Computer-Driven Simulations - e.g. STRATX
  • European Commission
  • French School
  • Generon Consulting
  • Global Business Network
  • International Futures Terra
  • SAMI Consulting
  • SRI
  • UN American University
  • Futures data

    PART III: CASE STUDIES

  • Arts Management Association
  • British Airways
  • Cable & Wireless
  • Electrolux
  • Europe in 2020
  • Diabetes 2020
  • Finland
  • KRONE
  • Morgan Stanley Japan
  • Pharma Futures
  • Shell
  • Surrey Vision 2020
  • UK's National Health Service
  • United Distillers

    PART IV: EXAMPLES OF SCENARIOS

  • Scenarios Developed by ICL Mark I
  • Scenarios Developed by ICL Mark II
  • Scenarios for the future of the Telecoms Industry
  • The Hemingford Scenarios
  • Scenarios for the Future of Biosience
  • Scenarios for organizations in the 21st century
  • Scenarios for Scotland in 2015
  • Shell Scenarios Global Scenarios to 2025
  • The Challenge Forum global scenarios
  • Z/Yen scenarios for voluntary sector organisations

    REFERENCES

    INDEX

  • Ключевые слова

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